Combination of prejudiced subjective probabilities

Abstract A new mathematical model is offered to explain how the human brain, acting under the influence of pre-existing prejudice, may combine independent subjective probability estimates. It is hypothesized that the effect of such prejudice is to divide the full probability space, subconsciously considered by the brain, into two disjunct sample spaces: on which is negative to, or contradicts, the prejudice; and the other which is positive or supports the prejudice. Corresponding formulae are derived. Comparisons are developed with the two primary alternative methods of combination—Bayesian and Dempster/Shafer—and experimental verification discussed and proposed.