A new empirical model of middle latitude ionospheric response for space weather applications

Abstract A new model for nowcasting and forecasting foF2 disturbances at middle latitude ionosphere, suitable for both scientific and operational purposes is proposed in this paper. The data analysis is established on IMF observations from ACE spacecraft, D st records and foF2 critical frequency observations from four middle latitude stations distributed in longitude around the earth. The investigation concerns 15 impulse storm events occurred between 1998 and 2002. The modeling technique is based on the empirical formulation of the ionospheric storm variations in respect to interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) disturbances, on the determination of the type and the amplitude of the ionospheric response in each local time sector as well as on the estimation of the time delay of the ionospheric disturbance onset in respect to the storm onset disturbances. The proposed empirical ionospheric storm-time model is designed to scale quiet daily ionospheric variation taking into account the storm onset time in UT and the local time of the observation point. Preliminary validation tests give evidence for significant improvement over monthly median values.