Impact analysis of age on radiation casualty estimations for nuclear detonation scenarios

AbstractPurpose: The purpose of this research was to demonstrate the impact of accounting for age-based radiation response when estimating radiation casualties in a nuclear detonation scenario.Materials and methods: Three nuclear device detonation scenarios were simulated using densely populated regions to compare traditional casualty estimates with age-dependent casualty estimates. Fatalities were estimated using age-based dose-response curves. The surviving population was assumed injured (requiring medical care) if their dose exceeded a lower bound, represented by the minimum dose required to cause deterministic effects, for each age group.Results: In each of the three scenarios, the affected area increased significantly for radiosensitive age groups. In two of the three scenarios, accounting for age-dependent radiosensitivity resulted in up to a 10% increase in fatalities and up to a 12% increase in radiation injuries compared to traditional estimates. This study demonstrates that the differences in ca...