Is the Median Hourly Ambulatory Heart Rate Range Helpful in Stratifying Mortality Risk among Newly Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation Patients

Background: The application of heart rate variability is problematic in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). This study aims to explore the associations between all-cause mortality and the median hourly ambulatory heart rate range (AHRR˜24hr) compared with other parameters obtained from the Holter monitor in patients with newly diagnosed AF. Material and Methods: A total of 30 parameters obtained from 521 persistent AF patients’ Holter monitor were analyzed retrospectively from 1 January 2010 to 31 July 2014. Every patient was followed up to the occurrence of death or the end of 30 June 2017. Results:AHRR˜24hr was the most feasible Holter parameter. Lower AHRR˜24hr was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] for every 10-bpm reduction: 2.70, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.75–4.17, p < 0.001). The C-statistic of AHRR˜24hr alone was 0.707 (95% CI: 0.658–0.756), and 0.697 (95% CI: 0.650–0.744) for the CHA2DS2-VASc score alone. By combining AHRR˜24hr with the CHA2DS2-VASc score, the C-statistic could improve to 0.764 (95% CI: 0.722–0.806). While using 20 bpm as the cut-off value, the aHR was 3.66 (95% CI: 2.05–6.52) for patients with AHRR˜24hr < 20 bpm in contrast to patients with AHRR˜24hr ≥ 20 bpm. Conclusions:AHRR˜24hr could be helpful for risk stratification for AF in addition to the CHA2DS2-VASc score.