Analysis of Macro-economy Effect of Sector Shocks and Aggregate Shocks——Taking the Impact of Eight Sectors Supply Shocks on Aggregate Inflation as an Example

Based on the fact that there is significant heterogeneity in different sectors, by taking 8 sectors for Chinato make CPI statistics as an example, by using the data during the first season of 2002—the fourth season of 2012,the impact of the shocks of the exogenous supply of the sectors and aggregate supply shocks on aggregate inflation isexamined, and the results show that the effect of food sector supply shocks on the aggregate inflation shocks is thebiggest, that the exogenous supply shocks from different sectors have different shocks effect on total inflation, onthis basis, conditional variance solution results reveal that the supply shocks from food sector and clothes sector aswell as total supply shocks play an important role in the boosting of the volatility of aggregate inflation. However,the supply shocks from other sectors have relatively corresponding small but strongly lasting effect on aggregateinflation volatility. The research shows that overlooking the heterogeneity from different sectors but constructing themodels based on total economy may cause the deviation of the conclusion, that the shocks of China's food sectorsupply have the biggest effect on the inflation. As a result, the commodity prices stability should first of all stabilizethe prices in food sector.