Distribution and habitat modeling of Dactylorhiza hatagirea (D. Don) Soo, Paris polyphylla Sm. and Taxus species in Nepal Himalaya

Abstract Medicinal plants are key components of the livelihoods of rural people, who rely on forest resources in the Nepal Himalaya, and this reliance is particularly high in hills and mountainous areas. Persistent premature and overharvesting, and inadequate knowledge of sustainable harvesting are additional threats to medicinal plants, acerbated by land use- and climate change. The data and knowledge regarding the current and potential future distribution of high value medicinal plants in Nepal is relatively sparse. We carried out predictive distribution and habitat modeling for Dactylorhiza hatagirea (D. Don) Soo, Paris polyphylla Sm. and Taxus species to understand their potential distribution, and to examine challenges affecting the natural habitat of these species, which are exposed to a rapidly changing physical and biological environment. The studied species are over-exploited, although conservation initiatives are in place in Nepal. Our predictions show that the potentially suitable habitats of these medicinal plants will expand northward, indicating that more suitable habitats will be available in the future, might be corroborated with climate change effects. We do believe that the findings of this study are highly instrumental for demarcating the future distribution range of high value medicinal plants, to pursue an effective and sustainable management. However, both distribution and habitats of medicinal plants will face a high risk of habitat loss in response to increasing human population, herbal demand and lack of knowledge of sustainable harvesting.