Simulation models for European corn borer postdiapause morphogenesis and early infestation of maize in Missouri, USA

The European corn borer is one of the most damaging insect pests to maize in the United States. Different methods exist for the estimation of time of damage to corn by first generation European corn borer. The most commonly used method is the linear thermal constant concept of phenology which by convention calculates cumulative thermal units from January 1 or another arbitrary date. Linear and nonlinear models based on the thermal units concept developed were to predict and simulate postdiapause development of the European corn borer and subsequent infestation of the maize crop using early spring temperatures (May 1–15) in central Missouri. The developmental rates of European corn borer were obtained from growth chamber investigations that simulated those temperatures, the operational temperatures being selected from a compilation of archival meteorological data from 1948 to 1989. The linear and polynomial regression models were developed to predict phenological stages of the European corn borer using thermal units as developmental rates. The models were compared against each other to determine the better predictor of estimation values: each explained 94 and 98% of the variation in developmental stages, respectively. In addition, the models were tested against independent field data and both models gave good predictions of developmental stages, indicating that either model would be a good predictor.