Scenarios Selection for a Simple Concept Landfill

Scenarios are used to deal with uncertainty on the evolution of complex systems. The scenario selection methodologies also have to provide a basis for reflexion and traceability of the reasoning. In the case of a simple concept landfill, a methodology that fulfils these requirements has been developed. It distinguishes on the one hand the landfill evolution, and on the other hand, the human behavior evolution. It is based on three steps: (i) characterization of the landfill itself, in order to define situations leading to releases of radionuclides, (ii) characterization of the human behavior in order to define situations leading to intrusions, and (iii) characterization of the interfaces between the two subsystems, in order to identify situations which could lead to a radiological risk for man. The method has been applied to performance assessment for landfill of uranium mill tailings. It has led to one reference scenario, and five altered scenarios taking into account specific landfill evolutions such as loss of covering or loss of integrity of the dike, and human intrusions such as housing on the site of landfill or excavation of the site.