Commercial sector gas cooling technology frontier and market share analysis

The cooling profile for commercial buildings shapes the afternoon, summer peak for many electric utilities. Their high generating costs to meet expanding commercial sector and coincident loads are reflected in increasingly complex rate structures attempting to discriminate among, and value competing peak demands. Alternative fuels do not bear the generation-cost penalties embedded in these rates. As a result, cooling technologies higher in first cost than are competing electric options can be least in levelized or life-cycle cost, and socially preferred in terms of total efficiency of energy conversion and use. Prudent commercial cooling R D planning decisions require market assessment methods which realistically incorporate these factors. Far-sighted planning also looks at technology with initially estimated high first costs. Before rejecting these blueprints, the R D planner would like to know what it would take to achieve economically viable market shares. Then, he or she can assess whether these operating parameter, cost, and/or performance goals are attainable. This paper describes a method, developed for the Gas Research Institute of the United States, that can assist planning for commercial sector natural gas cooling systems R D. These systems are higher in first cost than conventional electric chillers. Yet, engine-driven chiller designs existmore » which are currently competitive in US markets typified by high electricity or demand changes. 10 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.« less