The Canadian Contribution to Limiting Global Warming Below 2 °C: An Analysis of Technological Options and Regional Cooperation

Canada committed to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30% below 2005 levels by 2030, and by 70–90% below 2005 levels by 2050. These challenging commitments require special consideration of the energy sector in Canada. The main objective of this chapter is to identify different decarbonization pathways that would allow Canada to participate in global mitigation efforts to prevent climate changes. We analyze four GHG mitigation scenarios with increasing levels of mitigation efforts for 2050 using the NATEM regional optimization model. The main transformations in the energy system include significant energy conservation and efficiency improvements, greater penetration of electricity in all end-use sectors (up to 64% of total consumption in 2050), as well as an important increased use of bioenergy in 2050. On the supply side, this translates into a rapid decarbonization of electricity production and a shift away from fossil fuel production and imports. In addition, our results show that Canada would benefit from achieving greater cooperation between jurisdictions because of the large diversity in the composition of regional energy systems. Finally, this application demonstrates the merits of using a comprehensive optimization model for identifying the best mitigation options for achieving the national contribution to international agreement while taking into account regional particularities.