PREDICTION OF THE SHIFT OF DOMINATED PHYTOPLANKTON SPECIES FROM DIATOMS TO FLAGELLATES IN ACCORDANCE WITH DECREASING SILICATE IN THE SURFACE WATERS USING A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL

The importance of Silicate behavior at the surface receiving water on the shift of dominant phytoplankton species is well known. While the existing models do not always predict the cause-effect relationship well. Here, a simple system dynamics model was proposed to predict the cause-effect relationship. Using STELLA, the shift of dominant phytoplankton species from diatom to flagellates was well reproduced together with the decreasing silicate. This model could be a tool for runoff control planning from the catchment.