Uncertainties and Interdisciplinary Transfers Through the End-to-End System (UNITES)

Abstract : LONG-TERM GOALS. The overall goals of this research are: 1. To define and characterize the variabilities and uncertainties in the components and linkages of the general physical-geo-acoustical system relevant to the support of naval operations. 2. To transfer quantitatively the spatial-temporal environmental variabilities and uncertainties through the interdisciplinary system, including coupled interactions, in order to determine uncertainty measures, sensitivities and feedback needed to improve operational predictions and parameters. OBJECTIVES. This effort is part of a multi-institutional team effort, which started in the second half of 2001, to capture uncertainty in the common tactical picture. The team s name is UNITES, which stands for UNcertainties and Interdisciplinary Transfers through the End-to-End System. Led by Abbot, OASIS, Inc., and Robinson, Harvard University (HU), the UNITES team, with expertise spanning the ocean environment, underwater acoustics and tactical sonar systems, consists of a total of twelve principal investigators from nine different organizations including the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) and University of North Carolina (UNC). The NPS component in the UNITES team s paradigm to solve the interdisciplinary, end-to-end problem has two objectives: 1. To characterize acoustic prediction uncertainties, including their connections to the uncertainties in the ocean and geo-acoustic parameter estimates. 2. To forecast and improve acoustic baselines and their uncertainties in a data-assimilation framework involving coupled ocean and acoustic state variables.