Arbitrary Polynomial Chaos Based Simulation of Probabilistic Power Flow Including Renewable Energies

Abstract In this paper, a method is introduced for probabilistic power flow calculations based on arbitrary polynomial chaos. For the polynomial chaos, orthogonal polynomial sets are used to represent the uncertainties of renewable power generation, and these orthogonal polynomials are generated from actual data. The aforementioned method is applied to probabilistic power flow calculations, and its applicability is confirmed in application to an actual transmission network. The calculation time and accuracy achieved using the arbitrary polynomial-chaos method are compared with those achieved using the popular Monte Carlo method. The results show that the calculation speed is 246-680 times greater than that with the direct Monte Carlo method, while the accuracy is almost same.