Tree-rings and people – different views on the 1540 Megadrought. Reply to Büntgen et al. 2015
2015
Buntgen et al. (2015; hereinafter B15) present the result of
new research which question the results of Wetter et al. 2014,
(hereinafter W14) and Wetter et al. (2013, hereinafter
W13)regarding European climate in 1540. B15 conclude from
tree-ring evidence that the results based on documentary data
of W14 probably overstated the intensity and duration of the
1540 drought event. W14 termed it Megadrought because of its
extreme duration and spatial extent compared to other drought
events in central Europe, although they note that the term is
generally used for decadal rather than for single-year droughts
(Seneviratne et al. 2012). We take the opportunity to recall
the following issues. Firstly, when dealing with drought the
complexity of this phenomenon should be kept in mind.
Meteorological drought defined as a large negative
precipitation anomaly during a certain period can trigger
agricultural, hydrological, groundwater and socioeconomic
droughts. Lloyd-Hughes (2013] and references cited herein)
concluded that any workable objective definition of drought
does not exist. To quantify droughts, various indices based on
precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration are used such
as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized
Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Z-index and
PDSI. Their calculation depends on different periods (seasons,
combination of months) and so different indices may classify
the same drought episode differently (e.g. Brazdil et al.2014).
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