Energy projections for the National Energy Policy Plan

If the United States continues to import oil at close to today's levels through the mid-1980s, according to present midrange projections net oil imports would decline gradually beyond 1985 under all but the most pessimistic energy assumptions. While current projections are consistent with recent projections prepared by other Government and private groups, the future is far more uncertain than these or any other projections might indicate. Factors such as the world oil market and the behavior of the economy have proved to be unpredictable, even in the near term. The most one can expect from these projections is an appreciation of potential trends in energy supply and demand patterns, and their sensitivity to key uncertainties. Regardless of projections, it is clear that the United States will remain vulnerable to disruptions in the world oil market for years to come. Emergencies can be foreseen, even if they are not predicted, and there will be a continuing need for preparedness measures to handle them if they should arise. The article includes a graph of world oil prices to the year 2000 according to 10 different scenarios, a tabulation of U.S. energy projected consumption by sectors of the economy and by fuel type,more » a tabulation of U.S. energy projected production and net imports by source, and a tabulation of U.S. oil outlook for projected domestic production.« less