Efectos del cambio climático sobre la distribución de los alcornocales españoles. Una aproximación fitoclimática para la futura gestión

Fernandez-Cancio, A., Sanchez-Salguero, R., Gil, P.M., Manrique Menendez, E., Fernandez Fernandez, R., Navarro-Cerrillo, R.M. (2012). Climatic change effects on the distribution of cork oak Spanish forests. A phytoclimatic approach for the future management. Ecosistemas 21(3):50-62. Doi.: 10.7818/ECOS.2012.21-3.07 This manuscript presents a contribution in the evaluation of possible future climatic change effects on the distribution of cork oak forests (Quercus suber L.) in Spain, and suggests new management alternatives. To this aim, we used a phytoclimatic approach using 39 variables (time period 1940-2005) to define the current suitability and apply a projection to 2050 under four climatic change scenarios to define the future species suitability. The phytoclimatic diagnosis followed Fernandez-Cancio et al. (2004). This diagnosis identified 15 phytoclimatic groups for current climatic conditions, which could shift their distribution as a result of an increase in average temperature and a decrease in spring and autumn precipitation. The decrease in cork oak distribution, regardless of the climate scenario, will be very relevant in southern Spain (Andalusia) and the northeastern coastal area (Catalonia and Levante), where cork oak dense forests may disappear, as well as in the Extremadura region. The results suggest that new suitable areas might appear in northwestern Spain (Galicia and Cantabria) as refuge areas. However, Quercus suber will find a serious limitation to migrate as a results of the scarce availability of adequate soil in the potential geographic areas, except in Portugal, Extremadura and Salamanca regions. According with these simulations, new management alternatives to mitigate the effects of climate change in the Spanish cork oak forests will be required.