Demographic Dividend Models

This chapter identifies the social and economic factors that are required to successfully achieve a demographic dividend, including fertility, age structure, human capital, education, and the macroeconomic environment. It further describes how these factors have been incorporated into various dynamic models that project the dividend, with a focus on the DemDiv model developed by the authors. Results from the models suggest that changes in a country’s population size and age structure will have a positive effect on income per capita when accompanied by appropriate economic and educational policies. The results from applications of DemDiv in Kenya and Uganda are described, including their policy impact.