Ice-breaking performance sensitivity of the polar icebreaker to structure, control and ice parameters under different prediction models

Abstract Ice-breaking processes of an icebreaker are complex and many numerical models are proposed to predict the ice-breaking performance. Under the same polar conditions, different prediction models may derive different ice-breaking performances. Hence, it is necessary to analyze the influences of different prediction models and their corresponding input factors on the ice-breaking performance. However, there is almost no relevant study on such issues and it is urgent to fill this gap. In this study, different prediction models of the ice resistance are compared and analyzed. Subsequently, a global sensitivity analysis (SA) of the ice-breaking performance is performed for key input factors including structure, control, and ice parameters. Results show that the same input factors have appreciably different influences on the ice-breaking performance between different models. Besides, a global sensitivity of the maximized ice-breaking performance to structure parameters is analyzed, finding that the ship width is the most decisive factor. Impacts of different prediction models on the maximized ice-breaking performance regarding control parameters are also studied. Results indicate that model selection greatly influences the optimal performance and controls. Finally, an SA-based design process for the icebreaker is established, which can help perform the design work in a relatively efficient and economical way.