Ash cloud aviation advisories

During the recent (12--22 June 1991) Mount Pinatubo volcano eruptions, the US Air Force Global Weather Central (AFGWC) requested assistance of the US Department of Energy`s Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) in creating volcanic ash cloud aviation advisories for the region of the Philippine Islands. Through application of its three-dimensional material transport and diffusion models using AFGWC meteorological analysis and forecast wind fields ARAC developed extensive analysis and 12-hourly forecast ash cloud position advisories extending to 48 hours for a period of five days. The advisories consisted of ``relative`` ash cloud concentrations in ten layers (surface-5,000 feet, 5,000--10,000 feet and every 10,000 feet to 90,000 feet). The ash was represented as a log-normal size distribution of 10--200 {mu}m diameter solid particles. Size-dependent ``ashfall`` was simulated over time as the eruption clouds dispersed. Except for an internal experimental attempt to model one of the Mount Redoubt, Alaska, eruptions (12/89), ARAC had no prior experience in modeling volcanic eruption ash hazards. For the cataclysmic eruption of 15--16 June, the complex three-dimensional atmospheric structure of the region produced dramatically divergent ash cloud patterns. The large eruptions (> 7--10 km) produced ash plume clouds with strong westward transport over the South China Sea, Southeastmore » Asia, India and beyond. The low-level eruptions (< 7 km) and quasi-steady-state venting produced a plume which generally dispersed to the north and east throughout the support period. Modeling the sequence of eruptions presented a unique challenge. Although the initial approach proved viable, further refinement is necessary and possible. A distinct need exists to quantify eruptions consistently such that ``relative`` ash concentrations relate to specific aviation hazard categories.« less