Economic Forecast and fuzzy spatial analysis: integrated tools for assessing the development tendency of an Italian region

This paper is articulated in two sections. In the first, the touristic sector is described within an international perspective and the case of tourism development in the town of Arzachena is illustrated, with reference to the outline of the province of Sassari. An econometric model is implemented to forecast tourist trends in the period 1999-2005, in order to show the magnitude of total revenues. Finally the mixed economy of tourism and agriculture is presented as one of the main development potentials of weak areas, such as those of the interior part of the Island. In section two spatial analysis is performed in order to point out the tendency of the development to the tourist sector as a catalyst for local economy. Given the nature of the economic situation of several activities, that are caracterized by a mixed economy, rough set analysis is applied to show different kinds and levels of the shift from a pure agricultural to a tourist economy. A brief paragraph will end the paper presenting some remarks about the outcomes of the study and perspective for future developments.