Deficits in Auditory Predictive Coding in Individuals With the Psychosis Risk Syndrome: Prediction of Conversion to Psychosis

The mismatch negativity (MMN) event-related potential (ERP) component is increasingly viewed as a prediction error signal elicited when a deviant sound violates the prediction that a frequent "standard" sound will repeat. Support for this predictive coding framework emerged with the identification of the repetition positivity (RP), a standard stimulus ERP component that increases with standard repetition and is thought to reflect strengthening of the standard's memory trace and associated predictive code. Using electroencephalographic recordings, we examined the RP elicited by repeating standard tones presented during a traditional "constant standard" MMN paradigm in individuals with the psychosis risk syndrome (PRS; n = 579) and healthy controls (HC; n = 241). Clinical follow-up assessments identified PRS participants who converted to a psychotic disorder (n = 77) and PRS nonconverters who were followed for the entire 24-month clinical follow-up period and either remained symptomatic (n = 144) or remitted from the PRS (n = 94). In HC, RP linearly increased from early- to late-appearing standards within local trains of repeating standards (p < .0001), consistent with auditory predictive code/memory trace strengthening. Relative to HC, PRS participants showed a reduced RP across standards (p = .0056). PRS converters showed a relatively small RP deficit for early appearing standards relative to HC (p = .0.0107) and a more prominent deficit for late-appearing standards (p = .0006) relative to both HC and PRS-remitted groups. Moreover, greater RP deficits predicted shorter time to conversion in a subsample of unmedicated PRS individuals (p = .02). Thus, auditory predictive coding/memory trace deficits precede psychosis onset and predict future psychosis risk in PRS individuals. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).