Prediction of disability progression in fingolimod-treated patients.

Abstract Purpose The aim of the study was to evaluate whether early disease activity during fingolimod treatment could predict disease progression in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). Methods We included RRMS patients who received fingolimod for at least 12 months with a ≥ 36 months of follow-up. Early disease activity was assessed by the modified Rio score (MRS). Association between MRS at 12 months and time to disability progression over the following two years was assessed using Kaplan–Meier survival curves analysis and Cox proportional hazards model. Results At 1 year from starting treatment, 14 (58.3%), 5 (20.8%), 3 (12.5%) and 2 (8.3%) subjects had a MRS = 0, 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The risk of disability progression in the next 2 years was associated to the MRS and increased from 21.1% in patients with MRS = 0–1 to 80% in those with MRS ≥ 2 (adjusted HR = 19.67; 95% CI = 2.30–167.79; p  = 0.006). Conclusions Early disease activity is suggested to be associated with the risk of disease progression in patients receiving fingolimod and MRS could be a reliable tool to identify the subjects at higher risk of unfavorable course.