Interannual Variability of Air Temperature over Myanmar: The Influence of ENSO and IOD

Myanmar is located in a tropical region where temperature rises very fast and hence is highly vulnerable to climate change. The high variability of the air temperature poses potential risks to the local community. Thus, the current study uses 42 synoptic meteorological stations to assess the spatiotemporal changes in air temperature over Myanmar during 1971–2013. The nonparametric sequential Mann-Kendall (SqMK), linear regression, empirical orthogonal function (EOF), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and composite analysis were used to assess the long-term trends in maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature series and their possible mechanism over the study region. The results indicate that the trend of Tmax has significantly increased at the rates of 90% in summer season, while the Tmin revealed a substantial positive trend in winter season time series with the magnitude of 30%, respectively. Moreover, during a rapid change of climate (1995–2013) we observed an air temperature increase of 0.7 °C. The spatial distributions of EOF revealed relatively warmer temperatures over the whole region except the south in the summer; however, a similar pattern can be seen for the rainy season and winter, implying warming in the central part and cooling in the northern and southern parts. Furthermore, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influence on air temperature over Myanmar is more prevalent than that of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The result implies that the positive phase of the IOD and negative phase of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI; El Nino) events led to the higher temperature, resulting in intense climatic extremes (i.e., droughts and heatwaves) over the target region. Therefore, this study’s findings can help policymakers and decision-makers improve economic growth, agricultural production, ecology, water resource management, and preserving the natural habitat in the target region.