The precision of international market sampling for North Sea herring and its influence on assessment

Market sampling is a key source of data for catch-at-age-based assessment. Little has been documented about the influence of potential error in these data on the precision of assessments and the management information they produce. This paper presents the results of a study of the precision of North Sea herring fish market sampling carried out by the UK, Denmark and the Netherlands. Data from eight years of market sampling were analysed to obtain the precision of estimated numbers-at-age in the catch. The market sample data was then used to estimate 1000 realisations of the international catch-at-age and mean weightsat- age in the catch. Three methods of estimating the variability of missing catch data were used and three options for the catch-at-age matrices were computed. These base datasets were utilised to obtain 1000 assessments conditional on the ICA (Integrated Catch-at-age Analysis) model. From the outcome of these assessments the influence of the market sampling programmes on the management of the stock are presented as 95␌onfidence intervals on the main management parameters (recruitment, SSB, F0-1 and F2-6). In addition, the influence of missing data is estimated. The implications of our conclusions on the requirements from a market sampling programme are discussed