Epidemiological Consequences of Climate Change (with Special Reference to Malaria in Russia)

Climatic conditions play a major role among natural factors determining human’s existence. The factor of climate change is considered among other known risk factors to population health. In particular, climate leads to the changes in borders and structure of the areas of infectious and parasitic illnesses. The most serious climate changes are expected in mid- to high latitudes, especially in cities, where anthropogenic activity and air pollution cause exacerbating effect. Within the framework of this study, we try to elaborate a prognostic model of epidemiological conditions of the vivax malaria for the territory of the European part of Russia and Western Siberia. Forecasting was based on the results of climate modeling CMIP3 project under the “A2” IPCC scenario. As a result of forecasting, it is revealed that in the future (2046–2065), favorability of climatic conditions for malaria transmission will increase. The most remarkable changes are expected in the areas situated near southern limits of the considered territories.