Effects of spawning patterns and larval mortality on survival to the juvenile stage : a modelling analysis on the anchovy population of the Bay of Biscay

Fish populations show complex life cycles with successive dependent life stages, the spatio-temporal patterns of distribution at one stage impacting distribution, growth and mortality during the next stage. Here we propose to assess the relative effect of spawning (timing, duration, fecundity and spatial distribution, resulting from adult environmental conditions over autumn and winter) and larval mortality on the resulting survival at the age of metamorphosis. We used a suite of models run sequentially : a coupled physical-biogeochemical model to provide the environmental forcing, a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for adult fish growth and reproduction (spawning timing, duration and fecundity), an Individual Based Model (IBM) for larval drift, growth and survival.