Policy analysis of the greenhouse effect: An application of the PAGE model

Abstract In this paper we introduce a comprehensive model for policy analysis of the greenhouse effect (PAGE). We apply the PAGE model to assess the merits of policies to prevent global warming (by controlling the emissions of greenhouse gases), and policies to adapt to any global warming that occurs. The results confirm that it is difficult to overcome the problem of global warming by taking preventive action alone. The argument for introducing an aggressive adaptive policy is very strong. We calculate the valuation that would have to be placed upon non-economic environmental and social impacts, for a combined strategy of preventive and adaptive policies to be considered a worthwhile option, both for individual regions and for the world as a whole. We also show that uncertainties in all four groups of inputs to the model (scientific, costs of control, costs of adaptation and valuation of impacts) have a great influence on the costs and impacts of the combined strategy.