A robust water-food-land nexus optimization model for sustainable agricultural development in the Yangtze River Basin

Abstract Stable and sustainable grain production is an important guarantee for national security, economic development and social stability. Water and land are essential resources in irrigated agricultural systems. There is intricate relationship in Water, land and food nexus with large uncertainties involved therein. Sustainable agricultural development requires effective and coordinated management of the water-food-land nexus. This paper developed a robust optimization model to optimize the allocation of limited resources and maximize irrigation water productivity in water-food-land nexus system. The proposed optimization model fully considers the system uncertainties to assist decision-makers in developing more effective water and land resource allocation plans. The model is demonstrated to solve a real-world nexus management problem in the Yangtze River basin. The results show that the robust optimization method can solve the uncertainty disturbance and meet the target requirements, thus verifying the effectiveness and feasibility of the model in water-food-land nexus system. The model could be applied to similar river basins that have limited resources.