15-year simulation of ozone in Baltimore using SIPM

Abstract The objective of this study is to develop, evaluate, and apply the ozone prediction capability of the semi-empirical integrated pollution model (SIPM). SIPM is a source–receptor model that can be used to estimate the diurnal maximum ozone concentrations (DMOC). For this study, SIPM was applied to create a Base Case, 15-year (1981–1995) simulation of the DMOC for the Essex site in Baltimore, MD. The Base Case was used as part of a sensitivity analysis that examined the changes in the DMOC due to prescribed NO x and VOC point and area source emission changes. It was noted that decreasing point or area source NO x emissions up to 75% increased the number of 1-h exceedances relative to that found in the Base Case, and that decreasing total anthropogenic VOC emissions by as little as 6% decreased the number of 1-h exceedances by almost 50%.