Simulación del crecimiento del covid – 19 en Ecuador: desafíos empresariales en la nueva era

Introduction: Covid-19 is an infectious disease caused by a recently discovered virus. People affected by this disease experience various symptoms ranging from mild to severe. The impact of the pandemic has produced a projected fall in GDP of between 11% and 20% in sales of the productive sector in Ecuador. The objective of this research is to develop a simulation model that provides basic scenarios for making strategic decisions of authorities, directors and managers of companies based on the SIR method whose meaning is susceptible to infection, Infected and Recovered, which aims to know the behavior under controlled scenarios of a population in a particular context. On the other hand, the study also has an explanatory scope and is aimed at responding to the causes of physical or social events and phenomena, such as the management of companies in Ecuador. The main results indicate that without restriction measures, the peak of infections is theoretically reached on day 61; With restriction measures, with a quarantine of fewer hours of “curfew” approximately, a large part of the population is infected in approximately 90 days, although the statistics indicated by the health authorities are lower, in our country since the beginning of the pandemic There was not enough PSR tests for its citizens to have access, in addition to the high cost of the tests that makes it impossible for vulnerable economic sectors in Ecuador to use them. If the measures are radicalized, it allows the proper management of the pandemic in health centers. Finally, the impact of the pandemic in the Ecuadorian market is approximately $ 20,000 million, with a drop in sales revenue in almost all productive sectors compared to 2019, so organizations in Ecuador must survive with emerging actions, but implement strategic decisions to be better prepared for the post-pandemic future.