A decision tree approach to modelling nitrogen fertiliser use efficiency in New Zealand pastures

Quantifying nitrogen (N) fertiliser use efficiency (NFUE) in pastoral systems has important implications for fertiliser management from both economic and environmental points of view. The potential of a decision tree approach for modelling NFUE in New Zealand pastures was investigated. The decision tree model suggested that the time of applying N fertiliser was the most important factor influencing NFUE, with August or September (early spring in New Zealand) being the best time of application. The interaction of rainfall and temperature, rainfall, phosphorus (P) fertiliser history, soil Olsen P and slope were other important factors influencing NFUE. The model was validated for 11 of the 16 trials tested with a predictive accuracy of 69%. The mechanisms by which these factors influenced NFUE and the uncertainty associated with the model prediction were discussed. It was concluded that this type of modelling approach can be used to predict NFUE and thereby to assist decisions on when and where to apply N fertiliser in pastures for increasing productivity while reducing the environmental impact.