Multicriteria analysis of planned intercity bus terminals in the metropolitan city of Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract This paper proposes a methodology of decision making and policy guidance based on a multi-criteria decision aiding (MCDA) method for a comprehensive evaluation of intercity bus terminals in Istanbul, Turkey. Since decisions on the location of bus terminals in large agglomerations determine transportation costs and the quality of service of public transport passengers, the use of multicriteria analysis becomes necessary. In that respect, the intercity bus terminals proposed by 2023 Long-Range Landuse Plan (LRLUP) and 2023 Transportation Master Plan (TMP) of Istanbul are examined based on decision criteria of accessibility and suitability within the environment they are located. The multi-criteria analysis was performed using the additive value (AV) model to evaluate the locations of existing and planned intercity bus terminals in Istanbul based on their specific location characteristics defined. Criteria used in the analysis are the location within the region, population coverage and density, land value, accessibility by highway and public transit modes, availability of land for capacity expansion, and the surrounding land-use and geological characteristics. Based on the design criteria assessed, a general score for the location of each intercity bus-terminal (two existing and nine planned) was calculated using normalized importance weights obtained from an expert survey, and then the terminals were ranked based on their scores calculated for the base (2010 and before) and plan years (2023), respectively. Based on their total score, they were ranked and grouped into three categories as follows: (1) scores higher than 0.75, (2) between 0.51 and 0.75, and (3) equal to or smaller than 0.50. All planned terminals scored equal or higher than 0.50 (two out of nine are in the first category, six are in the second category, and one is in the third category), and this proved that all of them were planned where they were needed. Then, an availability analysis was carried out to identify the configurations of the bus terminals depending on each other, which is deemed to yield their best configuration. The results of this paper will be of relevance to urban and transportation planners facing a decision to make and prioritize transport planning decisions concerning the spatial planning of a metropolitan city based on chosen decision criteria.