Simulation of lake water environment trends in Tangxun lake of Wuhan under rainfall uncertainty.

Focus on the quantity and quality process in the whole basin, TXHwater model was developed to evaluate water environment trends of Tangxun Lake in Wuhan. Through Monte Carlo techniques, characteristics of watershed pollution loads, water flows and water quality trends under rainfall uncertainty were presented. The uncertainty of simulated COD and TP was largest and smallest, respectively, while uncertainty of simulated NH3-N and TN in the medium level. Rainfall conditions had significant impacts on the runoff yield and stream inflow of Xunsi river mostly during the flood season. If no further pollution control measures were planned, degradation of water quality will be aggravated to V category in 2010 and 2020 year. TN and TP were the key pollution factors, and will reach their maximum value from June to August during the year, and almost exceeded the required water environment standard for total rainfall possibilities.