Dynamic Bayesian Network Model of a Country’s Economic Extension

This paper presents the studies’ results on the probability-determined models development based on Bayesian networks to estimate the economic development measure of Ukraine. Considering that one of the difficulties in the Bayesian networks development is the exponential increase in the parameters amount in conditional probability tables (CPT), this study proposes a technique for applying Noisy-MAX nodes to model economic processes taking into account the time component. It is shown that if the proportion of enterprises that implement innovations is increased now by 31%, while the share of profits of these enterprises increases by only 2%, at the next time step the measure of manufacturability and innovation of Ukraine will rise by 81% and will tend to the maximum.