Not Just the Demographic Change – The Impact of Trends in Risk Factor Prevalences on the Prediction of Future Cases of Myocardial Infarction

Background Previous predictions of population morbidity consider demographic changes only. To model future morbidity, however, changes in prevalences of risk factors should be considered. We calculated the number of incident cases of first myocardial infarction (MI) in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in 2017 considering the effects of demographic changes and trends in the prevalences of major risk factors simultaneously.