Economic risk scenarios for semi-intensive production of Litopenaeus (Penaeus) vannamei shrimp affected by acute hepatopancreatic necrosis disease

Abstract A bioeconomic model was used to assess the impact of acute hepatopancreatic necrosis disease on the economic performance of Litopenaeus (Penaeus) vannamei production. Seven disease severity scenarios were considered where the worst results were obtained when severity was extreme with a mean loss of US$ -727.56 ha−1, a benefit/cost ratio of 0.52, and a 95.9 % loss probability. The best results were projected for the less severe scenario yielding mean net revenues of US$ 672.48 ha−1, a benefit/cost ratio of 1.25, and a 28.1 % loss probability. Under the worst situation, a farm integrated by at least ten ponds was estimated to face 100 % certainty of loss on average. In the most favorable situation, a farm using at least 20 ponds was 100 % confident of no loss on average. For situations when severity was intermediate, increasing the farm size from one to 60 ponds could reduce loss probability from 51 % to 32 %, and from 44 % to 4 %. A sensitivity analysis confirmed that disease mortality was the most critical factor affecting economic risk, and high salinity and poor pond productivity negatively affected shrimp production and economic outcomes. To conclude, the disease has a profound and harmful effect on economic performance where the results could range from catastrophic to moderately acceptable. Furthermore, bioeconomic modeling is useful for risk assessment and analysis of complex situations.