Excess Weight in Spain: Current Situation, Projections for 2030, and Estimated Direct Extra Cost for the Spanish Health System

Abstract Introduction and objectives Excess weight promotes the development of several chronic diseases and decreases quality of life. Its prevalence is increasing globally. Our aim was to estimate the trend in excess weight between 1987 and 2014 in Spanish adults, calculate cases of excess weight and its direct extra costs in 2006 and 2016, and project its trend to 2030. Methods We selected 47 articles in a systematic literature search to determine the progression of the prevalence of overweight, nonmorbid obesity, and morbid obesity and average body mass index between 1987 and 2014. We projected the expected number of cases in 2006, 2016, and 2030 and the associated direct extra medical costs. Results Between 1987 and 2014, the prevalence of overweight, obesity, and morbid obesity increased by 0.28%/y ( P  = .004), 0.50%/y ( P P  = .006) in men, and by 0.10%/y ( P  = .123), 0.25%/y ( P  = .078), and 0.042%/y ( P  = .251) in women. The mean body mass index increased by 0.10 kg/m 2 /y in men ( P 2 /y in women (significantly only between 1987 and 2002, P Conclusions Excess weight in Spanish adults has risen since the creation of population registries, generating direct extra medical costs that represent 2% of the 2016 health budget. If this trend continues, we expect 16% more cases in 2030 and 58% more direct extra medical costs.