A new algorithm for predicting long-term survival in chronic hepatitis B patients with variceal bleeding after endoscopic therapy

Abstract Background and aims A predictive algorithm for survival is urgently needed in clinical practice. This study aimed to establish an algorithm to predict long-term survival in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with hepatic cirrhosis and variceal bleeding after endoscopic therapy. Methods This was a retrospective study in which 603 patients who followed-up for three years were randomly assigned into a training cohort and a validation cohort in a 2:1 ratio. A new score model was devised based on the result of Cox regression analysis in the training cohort, and was verified in the validation cohort. Results A prediction score model composed of age, neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase and MELD score was established. The score ranged from 0 to 11. Areas under the ROC curve of the score were 0.821 (p  Conclusion The new score model can be used to predict long-term survival in CHB patients with hepatic cirrhosis and variceal bleeding after endoscopic therapy.