Species distribution modelling: Bombina bombina (Linnaeus, 1761) and its main invasive threat Perccottus glenii (Dybowski, 1877) in Latvia under global climate change

Amphibians have been greatly affected by invasive species through direct predation and competition. The invasion in Eurasia of Perccottus glenii (the Chinese sleeper) triggered by climate change may have detrimental consequences for the Fire-bellied toad ( Bombina bombina ) because the invader can feed upon B. bombina eggs, toads and juveniles. We used correlative species distribution models (SDMs) to infer competitive interaction between the invader and native species and found a significant level of correlation (r=0.636) between both SDMs, meaning there is a considerable overlap of areas of similar habitat suitability related to the species and a potential for competition. For strategical management purposes we mapped areas in Latvia where there are lesser chances for negative interactions between the both species, and where unwanted contact and/or competition between the invader and the toad can be avoided. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.erem.74.4.21093