Source term estimation of radioxenon released from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear reactors using measured air concentrations and atmospheric transport modeling

Abstract Systems designed to monitor airborne radionuclides released from underground nuclear explosions detected radioactive fallout across the northern hemisphere resulting from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in March 2011. Sampling data from multiple International Modeling System locations are combined with atmospheric transport modeling to estimate the magnitude and time sequence of releases of 133 Xe. Modeled dilution factors at five different detection locations were combined with 57 atmospheric concentration measurements of 133 Xe taken from March 18 to March 23 to estimate the source term. This analysis suggests that 92% of the 1.24 × 10 19  Bq of 133 Xe present in the three operating reactors at the time of the earthquake was released to the atmosphere over a 3 d period. An uncertainty analysis bounds the release estimates to 54–129% of available 133 Xe inventory.