Predictors of severe manifestations in a cohort of adult dengue patients

Abstract Background Key symptoms observed during the febrile phase of dengue may identify patients who are likely to progress to severe disease. Objectives To test this hypothesis, we examined the relationships between symptoms reported by patients at presentation and the development of severe outcomes. Study design Retrospective analysis of data recorded prospectively in 560 adult dengue patients admitted to an emergency department. A logistic regression analysis was used to quantify the association between symptoms reported at presentation and outcome. Results Plasma leakage was observed in 95 patients (17%), severe thrombocytopenia (platelet counts 9 /L) in 93 patients (16.6%) and acute hepatitis in 42 patients (7.5%). Severe thrombocytopenia developed in 57% of patients with plasma leakage and 40.5% of patients with hepatitis. Patients who developed a plasma leakage syndrome were older, mainly male, and reported more often an abdominal pain and a cough. Diarrhea and taking paracetamol >60 mg/kg/day before admission were associated with the development of acute hepatitis. Seven patients died. The mortality rate was 6/95 (6.3%) in patients who developed plasma leakage, 3/42 (7.1%) in patients who developed hepatitis, 5/93 (5.4%) in patients with severe thrombocytopenia, and 3/12 (25%) in the patients who demonstrated together all these severe manifestations. Conclusion Plasma leakage, severe thrombocytopenia and acute hepatitis identified subgroups of adult dengue patients with increased mortality rates. Key symptoms reported by the patients at presentation such as abdominal pain, cough or diarrhea were significantly associated with the development of severe manifestations and should be considered as warning signs.