Fluctuation and Forecasting of Thai Fresh Durian Export Price to China

The objective of this research was to analyze the fluctuation of Thai fresh durian exportprice and to find the appropriate model to forecast Thai fresh durian export price to China. The time seriesand the Box-Jenkins method were used, with the secondary data on the monthly report for 13 years, fromJanuary 2005 to December 2017, in total of 156 months. We applied seasonal decomposition techniquesby deconstructing 4 components: trend, seasonal, cyclical and irregular components to analyse the pricefluctuation. In order to forecast Thai fresh durian export price, the optimal model was selected betweenusing the time series method and the Box-Jenkins method. The research found that Thai fresh durianexport price was seasonal. Moreover, the price fluctuation was caused by irregular component, not bycyclical component. On the other hand, Thai fresh durian export price during the 13-year period are likelyto increase. The Box-Jenkins method provided the forecasting accuracy because the outcomes of MAD,MSE and MAPE values equal to 3.1124, -2.7772 and 9.789%, respectively. The appropriate forecastingmodel of the Box-Jenkins method was ARIMA (0, 1, 2)