사고예측모형을 활용한 회전교차로 안전성 향상에 관한 연구

PURPOSES: There are many recently constructed roundabouts in Jeollabuk-do province. This study analyzed how roundabouts reduce the risk of accidents and improve safety in the province. METHODS: This study analyzed safety improvement at roundabouts by using an accident prediction model that uses an Empirical Bayes method based on negative binomial distribution. RESULTS : The results of our analysis model showed that the total number of accidents decreased from 130 to 51. Roundabouts also decreased casualties; the number of casualties decreased from 7 to 0 and the seriously wounded from 87 to 16. The effectiveness of accident reduction as analyzed by the accident prediction model with the Empirical Bayes method was 60%. CONCLUSIONS : The construction of roundabouts can bring about a reduction in the number of accidents and casualties, and make intersections safer.