An econometric study of the causes of tropical deforestation: the case of northeast Thailand.

Statisticians developed 2 econometric models to estimate the deforestation rate prices and fixed factors which would reveal the causes of deforestation in northeast Thailand. This area constituted 33% of all Thailand and had the largest population and the lowest income per capita. The people living here consumed about 50% of all fuelwood consumption in Thailand. The demand functions were demand for logging demand for fuelwood and demand for conversion to agricultural land. The model showed all variables except irrigation infrastructure contributed significantly to deforestation (p = .1). These variables included in order of importance population density price of wood distance from Bangkok rice yields price of upland crops relative to rice income price of kerosene (a substitute for fuelwood) and rural road density. Population density price of wood and crop price all had a negative relationship with forest cover while distance from Bangkok rice yields price of upland crops relative to rice income and rural road density had a positive relationship. The researchers made several projections using different scenarios and learned that no one implemented policy can reverse deforestation. They recommended certain policies to implement which together may halt deforestation. They included creation of secure and longterm rights over land and forest to guarantee full consideration of user costs in harvesting and land- clearing decisions promotion of migration to other areas via improved education and land rights to reduce population pressures taxation of resource rents to reduce logging in fragile areas complete accounting of public infrastructure projects and reform of macroeconomic and sectoral policy to foster nonfarm employment and rural industry and to raise rural incomes.