Modeling the Urban Railway Demand Estimation by Station Reflecting Station Access Area on Foot

There exist some limits when we forecast urban railway demand by traditional 4 step model. The first reason is that the model based on socioeconomic data by an administrative unit, 'Dong', yields a 'Dong' unit trip matrix. But a 'Dong' often has two or more stations. The second reason is that urban railway demand by station would be affected rather by station access area on foot than by a 'Dong' unit. So the model based on 'Dong' characteristic data have some inaccuracies in itself. Owing to the limits of the model based on 'Dong' unit data, there exits some difficulty in forecasting urban railway demand by station. So this paper studied two alternatives. The first is to forecast the demand by using the data of station access area on foot rather than 'Dong' unit data. This needs too much time and effort to collect data and analyse them, while the accuracy of the model didn't improve a lot. The second is to adjust the location of 'Dong' centroid and the length of centroid connector link. By this way we can reflect the characteristics of station access area on foot under traditional 4 step model. Comparing the expected demand to the observed data for each station, the result looks like very similar.