Auction policy analysis: an agent-based simulation optimization model of grain market

National grain reserve is important in terms of responding to disasters and the unbalance between supply and demand in many countries. In China, the government supplements grain supply through online auctions. This study focuses on the auction policy of national grain reserve. We develop an agent-based simulation model of China's wheat market with detail descriptions of different agents, including national grain reserve, grain trading enterprises and grain processing enterprises. Based on this model, the Optimal Computing Budget Allocation (OCBA) simulation optimization method is adopted to analyze the characteristics of optimal decision variables under different scenarios, with an objective to minimize the fluctuation of wheat price. We obtain some insights about operations of national grain reserve. As the first agent-based simulation model about national grain reserve and grain market, this model can be widely used in agricultural economics, and can provide policy supports to the government.