The Weather Factor and Variability in China's Grain Supply

Abstract The variability of China's grain output due to uncertain weather conditions is quantified using disaggregate county-level data. Most studies of agricultural productivity growth in China focus on output growth in response to input growth and policy change; little attention has been given to the weather factor. A model is estimated to examine productivity growth, controlling for the impact of weather. The model is applied to five grain production regions in China. We study the slowdown in growth of China's grain production in the mid-1980's and find that it was due to less favorable weather conditions and to a loss in production efficiency after 1985. J. Comp. Econom., September 1998, 26(3), pp. 529–543. University of California, Davis, California 95616.