Climate variability and crop diversification in Brazil: An ordered probit analysis

Abstract Brazil is one of the world's major food-exporting countries that could be negatively impacted by climate change, and is also a leading greenhouse gas emitter through its agriculture. Crop diversification, as an agricultural practice, could lead to climate adaptation and mitigation. The aim of this study was to analyze the influence of climatic variability on categories of crop diversification so as to understand its role as an adaptive measure in response to climate change. An ordered probit model which allows for the separation of different categories of crop diversification was used for the 2006 period. The results showed that increases in temperature and precipitation did not affect each category in the same way. However, diversification intensity increases with climate variability: the greater the climate variability, the greater the likelihood of a farm being in the very diversified category. Therefore, crop diversification appears as an adaptation strategy because it is influenced by climatic shocks. These results could be used to recommend Rural Extension programs to promote diversified systems as a resilient and cleaner type of agricultural production to improve climate risk management in Brazilian agriculture.