Effects of condom use on HIV transmission among adolescent sexual minority males in the United States: a mixed epidemiology and epidemic modeling study.

PURPOSE We examined condom use patterns and potential population-level effects of a hypothetical condom intervention on HIV transmission among adolescent sexual minority males (ASMM). METHODS Using three datasets: national Youth Risk Behavior Survey 2015-2017 (YRBS-National), local YRBS data from 8 jurisdictions with sex of partner questions from 2011-2017 (YRBS-Trends), and American Men's Internet Survey (AMIS) 2014-2017, we assessed associations of condom use with year, age, and race/ethnicity among sexually-active ASMM. Using a stochastic agent-based network epidemic model, structured and parameterized based on the above analyses, we calculated the percent of HIV infections averted over 10 years among ASMM ages 13-18 by an intervention that increased condom use by 37% for 5 years and was delivered to 62% of ASMM at age 14. RESULTS In YRBS, 51.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 41.3-62.3%) and 37.9% (32.7-42.3%) reported condom use at last sexual intercourse in national and trend datasets, respectively. In AMIS, 47.3% (95%CI = 44.6-49.9%) reported condom use at last anal sex with a male partner. Temporal trends were not observed in any dataset (p > 0.1). Condom use varied significantly by age in YRBS-National (p < 0.0001) and YRBS-Trends (p = 0.032) with 13-15-year-olds reporting the lowest use in both; age differences were not significant in AMIS (p = 0.919). Our hypothetical intervention averted a mean of 9.0% (95% simulation interval = -5.4%-21.2%) of infections among ASMM. CONCLUSIONS Condom use among ASMM is low and appears to have remained stable during 2011-2017. Modeling suggests that condom use increases consistent with previous interventions have potential to avert 1 in 11 new HIV infections among ASMM.