Влияние современных температурных колебаний на хозяйственную деятельность населения в Байкальском регионе

Regional features of modern climate warming influence the conditions of economic activity and population living standards. The paper considers the dynamics of heating period characteristics, the average temperature of outside air, the fuel consumption index in the long-term and interannual mode in the South of Baikal region. The paper reveals a reduction in the duration of the heating period in the last decades from 1991 to 2017 relative to the long-term data up to 1960 by 6–10 days. It also showed a significant increase in the temperature of outside air in the heating period by 3.9 °C in Chita, 4.1 in Irkutsk and 5.0 °C in Ulan-Ude. The cumulative change in these indicators affected decrease of the fuel consumption index by 15–19%. Significant interannual fluctuations from 1991 to 2017 of the consumption index from 14 (Ulan-Ude) to 20% (Irkutsk) are comparable with its long-term changes (until 1960) and demonstrate the ambiguity of modern warming impact on economic activity in the Baikal region. Sharp interannual fluctuations in air temperature, providing a fairly frequent occurrence of abnormally cold winters, do not allow talking about reducing the need for fuel in the South of the Baikal region. In this regard, the preservation of all types of negative impacts, including pollution, poses a significant threat to the socio-ecological and economic well-being of the region. The search for solutions to improve the living conditions of population requires a change in the fuel balance of the region through development of technologies provided by the alternative “green economy” that best meets the natural and climatic specifics of the territory.